A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the country and triggered chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our islands remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, economic and societal rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, said McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has gone on in academia but very few government figures or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. They authors two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he said. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will ultimately be defeated but all factions has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
